Something to remember: 

“There is a time to go long, a time to go short and a time to go fishing.”

The Week Ahead

What’s driving markets?

• Coming to terms with disappointing first-week price action in a world with Bitcoin spot ETFs, the market trickled down 1.5% as centralized exchange volume experienced a nearly 40% drop while BTC dominance remained stable. 

• As Grayscale continues the process of converting its Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into an ETF, they have been liquidating spot BTC via Coinbase. Traders are actively tracking the Grayscale Trust’s wallets and it is widely speculated that the liquidation process could place persistent sell pressure on BTC’s price for anywhere from 2 weeks to the next 6 months, depending on whether GBTC investors take profits. Track Grayscale’s Bitcoin wallets here.

• Pockets of speculation remain engaged with the market, and Total Value Locked (TVL) into decentralized protocols has been steadily increasing since mid-October. 

Catalysts

• Thursday, January 25th @ 8:30AM ET: US GDP Growth Rate QoQ.

• Thursday, January 25th @ 8:30AM ET: US Initial Jobless Claims.

• Friday, January 26th @8:30AM ET: US Personal Income MoM.

Charts

• Telegram’s token, TON, has a notable divergence, having a much higher market cap than liquidity ranking, whereas Arbitrum (ARB) has the opposite divergence.

• Manta Pacific’s bridge had a 390% increase in deposits over the past 30 days as the token has gone live and been airdropped to community members.

• NFT trading volume on Ethereum, led by Blur, has begun to see a resurgence.

• BTC/ETH price correlation has reached its lowest level since 2021.

Research Content

• Kaiko flash liquidations post-mortem.

• CoinGecko 2023 Annual Report.

• Bloomberg analyst predicts 70% chance of Coinbase victory in case against SEC.

• GBTC Trust liquidation commentary.

• Net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs have been hampered by outflows from Grayscale’s GBTC.

• Ethereum NFT trading volume dashboard.

• Metamask announces validator staking product.

• Arkham tracking Grayscale’s BTC flows to Coinbase.

• SEC postpones resolution on Ethereum spot ETF.

• Donald Trump launches NFTs leveraging Bitcoin Ordinals.

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